Odds and Probabilities in Pai Gow Poker
Here are some basic pai-gow poker odds for you to consume:
On top of the 5% commission that the casino will charge you on a win, there is an additional 2.65% house edge to the banker. This is because there is a 2.55% chance that the low hand will copy the dealer and a 0.10% that the high hand will copy the dealer.
House Edge for banker
If you are the banker, the house edge for the dealer one on one is almost 0%, with a tenth of a percent going one way or the other depending on that casino's house way.
The more people who are playing hands against the banker (up to 6 hands), the higher of an advantage the banker has. With all six hands playing, the banker has an advantage of 0.25%
Hand Probabilities in Pai Gow Poker
Here is a list of the probabilities that you (or the dealer) will receive a certain hand with the seven cards dealt in pai gow poker:
- High Card - 16.1% or 1 in every 6.25 hands
- Pair - 41.7% or 1 in every 2.4 hands
- Two Pairs - 23.1% or 1 in every 4.35 hands
- Three of a Kind - 4.8% or 1 in 20 hands
- Straight - 7.3% or 1 in every 14.5 hands
- Flush - 4.0% or 1 in 25 hands
- Full House - 2.7% or 1 in 40 hands
- Four of a Kind - 0.2% or 1 in 500 hands
- Straight or Royal Flush - 0.1% or 1 in 1000 hands
- Five Aces - 0.00075% or once every 130,000 hands
The total number of possible card combinations that you can receive is 154,143,080.
Hand Power Ratings
The following probability charts were provided by wizardofodds.com:
For the five card ratings, the hand column represents the highest two cards left in your five card hand. For example, getting 9,5 assumes that you received 2,3,4,5,7,8,9 in your hand without a flush. You would play the 7,8 and this is the worst possible hand in pai gow poker.
Combinations represents the total number of ways you can receive this hand. Probability is the likelihood that you will get this hand (total probability equals 1). Player PR is the likelihood that the player will win the hand. Banker PR is the likelihood that the banker will win the hand (not to be confused with winning both hands).
The only difference between the five and two card charts is that the Hand actually represents the two cards you have in your low hand. For example, the only time you will be playing the 3,2 is when you are doing so because you have a straight, flush or better in your hand and the only two cards to get rid of are the 3 and 2.